Indiana Pacers vs New York Knicks

The home team has won 75.8 percent of the time in Game 7s since 1982 and New York has to cover a small number in this game. Indiana is 1-5 straight up and 2-4 ATS on the road in this year's playoffs. The Knicks had an off-shooting night hitting only 43.9 percent overall in Game 6 while the Pacers shot 53.8 percent. New York is hoping to get OG Anunoby to return for the first time since May 8 when he suffered a left hamstring strain. The home team is 6-0 in the series and the Knicks are 10-2 ATS their past 12 games following a loss, 12-2 ATS following an ATS loss and 14-5 ATS as home favorites of 0.5-4.5 points. New York is 43-26 UNDER in the first half and 16-5 UNDER after losing by double digits. The Pacers are 2-8-1 ATS their past 11 playoff games as underdogs and 26-11 UNDER their past 37 road games overall. Take the Knicks and the first half and the game to stay UNDER.

The Knicks lead the series 3-2 after a 121-91 Game 5 rout. New York had a winning road record during the regular season, anchored by a dynamite defense that was second in the NBA in points given up. They outscored opponents by +4.6 points per game, second only to Boston in the Eastern Conference. Indiana's defense was 27th in points surrendered, 28th in field goal shooting allowed (49.5%), and 28th at defending beyond the arc (38.4%). New York won twice on the road in the last series at Philadelphia, 118-115 and 97-92 as underdogs of +3 and +5, and has more than enough to close this series out, but I'm grabbing the points here. New York is 26-20 ATS on the road this year, including 9-4 ATS (69%) in the past three months as the underdog. Take New York to cover.

Indiana coach Rick Carlisle's criticism of the officiating in the first two games of the series apparently paid off as the Pacers tied the series at 2-2 with a dominating 121-89 victory on Sunday. The Pacers built a 43-point lead at one point and took advantage of New York's 33.7 percent overall shooting as the Knicks missed 30 of 37 3-point attempts. The good news for the Knicks is they are going home where they won Games 1 and 2, and NBA teams that suffer a humiliation usually bounce back in a big way—especially in the playoffs—when the emotional swings are dramatic. New York is 8-1 OVER following an ATS loss and 7-1 OVER its past eight games overall as a favorite. The Knicks are 13-3 OVER playing with one day of rest and Indiana is 6-0 OVER as a road underdog. Take the Knicks on the moneyline and the OVER.

The home team has won every game of this series. New York's O.G. Anunoby is questionable (Hamstring) to play, their fourth-leading scorer in the playoffs (16.4 points per game). The Knicks have already lost All-Star Julius Randle (24 ppg, 9.2 rpg) along with Bojan Bogdanovic (10.4 ppg) and Mitchell Robinson to season-ending injuries. NBA road underdogs like the Knicks that outrebound opponents by 3+ boards per game are 183-283 ATS. Up-tempo Indiana is 22-10 ATS when playing four or fewer games in 10 days. Indiana has won all four of its home playoff games and is 27-16 ATS after playing a home game, plus 29-12 ATS after a game where they failed to cover. Play Indiana.