darrell,

Well, last week wasn't very good to us. After two great weeks to close out the regular season, and a good start in the Saturday afternoon game, things went south. On Saturday, we got the UNDER on the Tampa/Washington game to get off to a good start. Then, on the OVER, New England and Jacksonville started off very slowly with just ten points through the first half. But, then the Pats exploded for 21 points. We needed just one more touchdown from either team in a full quarter to get the OVER but both teams went completely dry. On Sunday, the Panthers spanked the Giants all over the field. Tom Coughlin should lose his job for that performance (run for 1 yard on 1st and 2nd down EVERY time!). Just a bad pick on my part. Then, we know what happened to the Bengals in the Sunday late game. Carson Palmer going down on his first play pretty much sealed the deal as the Bengals had no shot without their best player.

On to this week's Divisional Playoff matchups, picks and analysis...

My Week NFL Computer Simulations are available for viewing. These simulations are based on a Super Computer playing each game tens of thousands of times. Use them as an input to your handicapping - not a replacement. The computer can't take into account emotion or situations which are critical to successful NFL handicapping.

Good luck, darrell!

****SEATTLE -9 over Washington (Saturday 4:30 Eastern)

Afraid of laying nine here? No worries. This appears to be the easiest pick of the weekend. Seattle should absolutely crush the Skins. There are generally two camps of fans out there when it comes to Seattle. Those that picked them for the Super Bowl and like their chances and those that love to bash them (due to their recent letdown seasons and reputation for being soft). If you are in the latter group, you might want to rethink things. In looking at the numbers this week, Seattle is damn good! They went 13-3 and outscored opponents 452-271 on the year. They averaged 4.7 yards per carry while giving up fewer than 95 yards per game on the ground. They averaged 7.66 yards per pass attempt as Hasselbeck completed 65% of his passes (only second to Peyton). Not to mention the fact that they have one of the best running backs in the league (the MVP who put it in the endzone 28 times) and a defense that recorded the highest number of sacks of all teams remaining. They are focused and rested and playing at home. Washington limps in off a tough game in which they put up the fewest offensive yards in a playoff win ever. Washington's defense is very good and against Chris Simms and the Tampa Bay Bucs, that worked. Not this week. Seattle will score here and Washington just doesn't have the offense to keep up. Teams that are playing their second playoff game after a 3+ year absence from the playoffs are just 2-12 ATS. Washington has to be a bit exhausted here after playing at Philly and then Tampa the last two weeks. They've had a great ride over the past six weeks but it's time to come to an end. This game reminds me of last year's Conference Finals game in which Minnesota went into Philadelphia as an eight point underdog and got trounced 27-14. The much stronger team just manhandled them. Four stars on the Seahawks in a blowout.

**DENVER -3 over New England (Saturday 8:00 Eastern)

Tough one here. How do you go against either of these teams? Everyone can come up with arguments to back either. But, in all honesty, who wants to go against either in this situation? New England simply hasn't lost in the playoffs in the ten games in the Brady/Belichick era. They are peaking at the right time. If we look at New England's season-long statistics, they don't compare at all. But, we really need to focus on their last 8 games and throw out the the first half of the season. In the second half of the year, they were 6-2 (now 7-2 after last week's win) and held opponents to under 15 points per game. They crushed Jacksonville, a 12-4 team, last week. Can't fault anyone for wanting to ride this train. But, I'm predicting a derailment. No team has won three straight Super Bowls and I predict that streak to be safe after this game. New England can certainly win this one. But, I don't see it as likely. Not against the Broncos at home. Denver is very powerful and DESPARATELY wants this one. Sure, with a win they advance and that's a lot of motivation. But, there are years of pent up frustration here for Shanahan who hasn't done squat since losing Elway. He finally has the team to do it here. These two teams played earlier in the season as the Broncos won 28-20. But, that was then and this is now. Not a lot to compare. Both teams are better, especially New England. But, Denver is simply too strong to ignore. At home, over their last ten games, they have outscored opponents 2-1 (262-131). In those games, they rushed for 177 yards per game and allowed an averag of 73 yards per game on the ground. Let's look at Denver's performance this year. In their 13 wins, they won by an average score of 26-13. One of their losses, opening day at Miami, can be described as nothing more than a fluke. The other two losses were very close and against very good teams. The Giants beat them in New York by one point very late in the game and KC beat them a month ago by four. Who can blame Denver for losing to Kansas City in Arrowhead in December? Jake Plummer is still susceptible to that big mistake and if this is the game he makes it, New England wins. But, he's shown that he can avoid it thus far. Visiting teams that won their first playoff game by 14+ points do very poorly ATS in their next game (37% ATS). In 2004, this system went 4-1 as both Indy and Minnesota waltzed into this round off big Wildcard wins and went on to lose both SU and ATS. If Belichick can devise and execute a scheme to stop Denver's rushing attack (which leads the league) and put this game on Jake's shoulders, the Pats could win. But, I just think this is too big a power mismatch with Denver well rested and ready. Two stars on the Broncos minus the field goal.

Pittsburgh +9.5 at INDIANAPOLIS (Sunday 1:00 Eastern)

This is probably the toughest game of the weekend for me to pick. I really had planned on taking the Colts strong here. The Colts are very powerful this year and home teams in this round tend to do very well. But, after seeing the spread, and analyzing the game, I can't back either team. I'm not buying into the fact that Indy is "rusty" or didn't play well at the end of the season. Nonsense. They will be ready here. They are just too good to fall trap to that one. They didn't play well because they didn't need to play well. They'll play well this week. And, I certainly expect them to win and advance. But, Pittsburgh has the experience, the defense, and weapons to make them fight for it. It's going to be crazy loud during this game but Pittsburgh will be prepared for that. They faced this crowd (and alleged fake noise creation) earlier this season. It was tough on them but they won't be surprised by it this time around. And, they are confident after going into Cincinnati and winning last week. What I like about Pittsburgh here is getting nearly double digits on a team with a great running game and a great defense. You can't ask for much more in the NFL playoffs. But, this Colts team destroyed everything in their path this year. In a crazy year of favorites covering the spread over 57% of the time, and big favorites covering like clockwork, would it suprise anyone to see the Colts win by two touchdowns? This is the first meaningful game since Dungy's return as the head coach and that will give them an emotional boost here. As mentioned, home teams in this round typically perform well ATS including 3-1 last year (Pittsburgh was only home team not covering). Pittsburgh allowed 3.4 yards per rush this season and can force the game into Manning's hands. But, is that what you want if you are a Steelers fan? Indy just has too many ways to beat you and they are on a mission this year. In the end, this is a tough call and I am going to pass on this game.

*CHICAGO -2.5 over Carolina (Sunday 4:30 Eastern)
*CHICAGO/Carolina UNDER 30.5

Carolina certainly impressed last week. They shut out their host and litterally ran all over them. Can they repeat that performance this week? It's going to be a lot tougher. The Giants simply couldn't stop Carolina on third down last week. But, Chicago's defense this year rivals the best of all time. Statistically, it's better than that of the 2001 Ravens and even the 1985 Bears - considered the best of all time. Both of those teams won the Super Bowl. Chicago allowed 282 yards per game this year (2nd) and 12.6 points per game (1st). Carolina had a near perfect game last week. They faced an ill-prepared Giants team that turned the ball over five times. How easy will it be to turn in back-to-back great performances? Chicago will stop Carolina's run in this game. Plain and simple. They will force 3rd and long and force the game into one dimension: Delhomme to Steve Smith. If Carolina can make that hookup work consistently, they win this game. If not, they lose. I'm betting Chicago just won't let that happen. Chicago's offense is very suspect. They scored just 16.3 points per game this year and they have an inexperienced quarterback in Rex Grossman. Inexperienced QB's had a very rough go of it last week. But, with this defense, they just need to run the ball. This is something that Chicago does very well (131 yards per game). And, Grossman knows he needs to manage the game and can make the deep throw to keep the Panthers' defense honest. In November, Carolina came into Chicago and lost 13-3. This game may have the exact same score. Chicago's defense is just WAY too good to not back here at home on the frozen tundra. The public has moved this from -3 to -2.5 based on Carolina's dominating performacne last week. As stated, will be tough to repeat that here. One star on the Bears and one star on the UNDER.