darrell,

We won the two big ones last week with the 4 star on Seattle and 2 star on Denver. The two one-star picks lost on Sunday. We're down to the two remaining games before the Super Bowl. My thoughts on the Conference Championship games below...

My NFL Computer Simulations are available for viewing. These simulations are based on a Super Computer playing each game tens of thousands of times. Use them as an input to your handicapping - not a replacement. The computer can't take into account emotion or situations which are critical to successful NFL handicapping.

Good luck, darrell!

**Pittsburgh +3.5 over DENVER (3:00 Eastern)

The Denver Broncos are relieved. Wouldn't you be? Before Pittsburgh upended the Colts, Denver was headed to Indianapolis this weekend - a place they lost the last two years by a combined score of 91-34. Sure, this is a much better Broncos team than those two. But, they still couldn't have been very confident going to Indy. Now they get to play at home. And, they are off a convincing win over the "unbeatable" world champion Patriots. They are feeling pretty good about themselves, as they probably should be. But, they are at risk of being a bit overconfident here. They are getting the sixth seeded Steelers and the sixth seed has never won the Super Bowl. But, the Steelers are not your typical sixth seed. They are seeded here for one reason - because they lost some games with Ben Roethlisberger out. But, they have shown how good they really are the past two weeks with Ben at full force. They beat Cincinnati and Indianapolis on the road through a combination of smash mouth runnning and pressure defense. With Big Ben in the lineup, this team is now an amazing 25-4 straight up. They are better than last year's 15-1 club for one big reason - they've shown they can win through the air as well as the run. That's what so impressive. Last week they averaged 3.1 yards per carry and still spanked the Colts in their own house! Ben is the highest rated passer in the league and unlike last year, he looks very poised behind center. The point is, what is Denver to do here defensively? Stuff eight in the box to stop the Bus and Parker? If they do that, Roethlisberger can pick them apart. And, the Steelers have a defense that can pressure Jake Plummer and cause errors. If they can do it to Manning, they can do it to Plummer. And Denver's vaunted rushing attack? It's excellent. But, Pittsburgh allowed a league best 3.4 yards per carry this season (as compared to 4.0 for Denver). If they can hold the league's two top scoring offenses (CIN, IND) to 35 combined points, they can hold Denver down too. These teams are pretty evenly matched but contrary to popular belief, Pitt actually holds advantages in some key areas. In addition to the aforementioned yards per rush against stat, Pittsburgh allowed fewer points per game and threw for more yards per attempt. And let's look at Denver's win last week. It wasn't as easy as the final score would indicate. New England made a lot of mistakes and a couple of key calls went Denver's way (phantom pass inteference and no touchback on Champ's near end-zone fumble). Third road game here for Pitt, yes. But, who cares? Think Pitt is scared after what they've done the past two weeks? Not me. And, in this round of the playoffs, the visitor has won more in recent years than the home team. Don't get me wrong. Denver is a great team with an awesome offensive line and a solid defense. But, Pittsburgh is as good a team as Denver. And, they are playing with a chip on their shoulder. And, they have a better quarterback. And, finally, they are getting over a field goal. They may not win it, but it should be close at least. Two stars on the Steelers plus the points.

**SEATTLE -3.5 over Carolina (8:00 Eastern)

Respect continues to elude the Seahawks. They are mere 4 point favorites at home in this one against Carolina. Part of it is due to Carolina playing such good football. They shredded a Chicago defense that appeared unshreddable prior to last week. They, like the Steelers, have upset two home teams en route to this game. They look in many ways like the 2003 Super Bowl team that kept winning road games they were supposed to lose. But, I just have to give props to Seattle. For a team to lose their best player (the leauge MVP) in the first quarter, and lose the turnover battle 3-1 and still cover a 9.5 point spread last week is nothing short of amazing. Teams that lose the turnover battle in playoff games lose the game outright 86% of the time. Not only didn't they lose (with a -2 turnover differential), but they won by 10 points! I don't have the data but I'd venture to say that's never been done before. It reinforces for me how good Seattle is. As I said last week, when you really look at Seattle, they are an exceptional footballteam. A lot of people don't want to believe it but it's true. They won by an average score of 28.3 to 16.9 this season. They rushed for 152 yards per game racking up 4.7 yards per carry while holding opponnents to 94. And, they are now sitting at 14-3. But, are they good enough to stop Steve Smith? No! No one can stop him right now. If Chicago can't, Seattle is unlikely to. But, Seattle's defense is very good at keeping teams out of the endzone. They give up yards but not points. And, unlike Chicago, Seattle can shoot it out with Carolina. I am assuming Shaun Alexander will be at full strength or close to it here and with him playing and Hasselbeck behind center, I like Seattle to win and cover this spread. Two stars on the Seahawks to make it to Super Bowl Forty.